Sustainability, where real per capita income in India can grow at 3.5 to 4 percent a year to double every generation of about 20 years, requires that real GDP should grow at least 5.5 to 6 percent a year and the population should grow somewhere between 1 to 1.5 percent a year. These rates are quite possible given the long-term history of a slow but steady decline in birth from 2.5 to 1.8 percent rate and a slow but steady increase in GDP from less than 2 to 9 percent from 1951 to 2010.
It is an optimistic view to say that the economy will grow at 6 percent when historically it has grown about half as much. The recent experience of higher growth rates of GDP from 7 to 10 percent range is unlikely to be sustained in the long-term. Likewise population stability requires that the birth rate be reduced by about half from four children per couple to two.
The best way to manage and stabilize population at current levels of 1.2 to 1.5 billion is to keep girls in college and focused on their building up of income producing capacity so that when they become mothers they are also able to contribute to GDP and the higher standard of living for their families. Keeping girls in college will also mean that unlike their mothers and grandmothers they are not having babies in their most fertile years in the 17 to 24 age group.
“Hit the Books and Not the Sack” or “Knowledge before Babies” or “College before Marriage” could be adopted as a national slogan by the Parliament and the government. This should be achieved by (i) increasing scholarships based on merit, sports, and public service in any academic field of their choice, (ii) student loans, (iii) more colleges and universities for women in both the private and public sectors, preferably at least one in every district, (iv) entrepreneurial training and financing through micro-financing of business enterprises they create, and (v) education and assistance in family planning. Thus the process of getting education becomes the best and natural abstinence method of population control while increasing supply of skilled and educated workers with higher productivity at home and in the market.
Thus, there is no better investment for the development and growth of the society and the economy than higher education of women. The Parliament should pass a law which mandates a certain number of women’s universities in the country. Government should establish public universities and give assistance and incentives to private not-for-profit institutions to achieve its national goals and aspirations.
To summarize, population growth of less than 1.5 percent a year and GDP growth of about 6 percent a year would stabilize the system at a sustainable level of growth in per capita income of about 4 to 4.5 percent a year or the standard of living doubling every generation of 18 to 20 years.
