Sunday, July 14, 2013

Indis's Economy Needs Confidence of Investors - Domestic and Foreign

The Indian economy needs confidence, confidence, confidence to attract domestic and foreign investment. Indian government leaders in economic areas need to make policies and implement them to earn the confidence of investors for a higher short-term, medium-term and long-term growth rates. More domestic investment capital will stay at home and foreign liquid, financial and direct investment capital will move in with the increase in the degree of confidence investors perceive for each of the three time horizons.

Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission Dr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia,  Finance Minister  P. Chidambaram, Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma, Corporate Affairs Minisster Sachin Pilot, Power Minister  Jyotiraditya Madavrao Scindia and others are making rounds of New York and Washington, D.C. in the summer of 2013 jawboning the positives of India to American government, industry and investors.

Apparently the US government, industry and investors want more from India to risk their capital in India in the expectation of a higher return  and bigger markets than elsewhere.  So how could India do that?

In a paper titled " India's Democratic Economic Transformation" in Challenge magazine of September/October 1996 I had identified the following to attract capital and to build confidence. To attract capital I had suggested to get foreign portfolio investment, foreign direct investment, reforms and integration of capital markets, accessing external bond and equity markets,  and sourcing external capital markets generally. India has done much of it, perhaps excessive bond market borrowing as the trade and budget deficit have been financed with external capital by government and industry.

Servicing credit of curse requires a stream of income from exports and open capital markets. This where India has a lot of work to do in making the economy competitive in terms of quality of goods, variety of goods and services, cost, and a friendly business environment.

Jawboning ad good public relations can help but open trade and real competitive advantage are the fundamental long-term factors that will build sustained confidence of global investors, including significant American industrial and portfolio investment, in India.  


Thursday, July 11, 2013

India Open for Business Welcome Team With American Education

Having been under colonial rule from 1958 to 1947 and the British influence and control through the East India Company from 1600 to 1857, India justifiably was suspicious of the West following Independence in 1947. East India Company officers who became advisers to the Mogul Emperors in India  of course took over the administration which eventually led o the annexation of India to Britain  and installing Queen Victoria as the Empress of India. 
Prime Minister 'Chacha'  Jawaharla Nehru made India non-aligned  and at the same time made defense pact with the Soviet Union  which became the key supplier of military hardware  to India until its fall in 1989. Chacha Nehru's government also asked the British corporations  and personnel to leave India in 1956. Following his death, Coca Cola and IBM also left in the 1970s instead of sharing their formulas and software with India.
Fast forward to 2000 and President Bill Clinton's visit to India which has brought India and the United states close at an accelerated  speed. There are strategic partnerships and initiatives between the two countries under President George W. Bush and President Obama on the American side and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh in the areas of energy, environment, defense, education, technology, trade, etc.
Another indicator of American and Indian closeness is the degree of American intellectual influence on Indian policy under UPA II in the government headed by Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh. There are thirteen ministers and Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission in the Union government in July 2013 of which 5 are British educated and 9 American educated: Economic, budget and tax policy (Dr. Manmohan Singh (UK), Dr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia (UK) and Shri P. Chidambaram (USA)), foreign policy (Shri Salman Khurshid (UK)), education Dr. M.M. Pallam Raju (USA)assisted by Dr. Shashi Tharoor (USA)), law ( Shri Kapil Sibal (USA), civil aviation (Shri Ajit Singh (USA), urban housing and poverty alleviation (Dr. Girija Vyas (USA), rural development (Shri Jairam Ramesh (USA), development of north eastern region (Shri Paban Singh Ghatowar (UK)), power (Shri Jyotiraditya Madhavrao Scindia (USA)), corporate affairs (Shri Sachin Pilot (USA), shipping, communications & information technology (Shri Milind Murli Deora (USA)), and health and family welfare (Shri Abu Hasem Khan Choudhary UK and Canada).
This is perhaps the first time since 1947 when so much American thinking is guiding India. Of course Mahatma Gandhi, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, Deputy Prime Minister Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel and many other Indian independence movement leaders were educated in the U.K.
Future blogs will look into the implications of close and strategic relationship that has grown between the United States and India since 2000 and disproportionate American intellectual influence on India compared with any other country in 2013.

Friday, July 5, 2013

The Fall of the Indian Rupee in 2012- 2013

Hare are ten possible reasons behind the fall of the Indian Rupee by almost 20 percent from July 2012 to  July 2013 against major global currencies::

1.  Slowing GDP growth from near 10  to 5 percent.
2.  Increasing trade and current account  deficit.
3.  Underlying inflation.
4.  Indian human capital going to greener pastures. Confidence in the economy is less than before.
5.  Indian financial capital going abroad. Foreign capital going back home or elsewhere.
6.  Political complexity and indeterminate state of indistinguishable leadership across political parties.
7.  India becoming dependent on handouts and distributive justice towards more equality.
8.  Group identities based on caste, social status, region, and religion are driving the political economy.
9.  Corruption, indifference, disrespect, disregard for honest day's work,  and low quality and creativity.
10. India's globalization creates opportunities and competition which at present favor other economies.